Separatist supporters gather during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026. (Photo by Henry MARKEN / AFP via Getty Images)
The government of Alberta has commissioned a $1.5 million independent study by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy to examine the potential economic costs, transition risks, and possible savings associated with the province’s departure from Canada.
Having “objective, evidence-based analysis” is important for Albertans ahead of the fall referendum meant to decide whether the province should remain part of Canada or hold a second, binding separation referendum, the province said in a press release.
“Albertans deserve clear and credible information on the potential impacts of separation,” Finance Minister Jason Nixon said in the June 12 release. “This is a huge decision that will impact our kids and grandkids long into the future, and we cannot approach it lightly.”
Alberta has also appointed an expert advisory panel to evaluate the findings of the study and serve as a consultative body for both the School of Public Policy and government throughout the process, the province said.
The panel will provide feedback but the school will have “full and independent control over the final report,” the press release said.
The panel, headed by economist Dr. Jack Mintz, will include political scientist and former Alberta Finance Minister Ted Morton, Business Council of Alberta president Adam Legge, Cenovus Energy Inc. board chair Alex Pourbaix, and former Saskatchewan Finance Minister Janice MacKinnon.
The panel will evaluate the findings and provide an independent written assessment after the completion of the school’s report.
“Albertans need to know and understand the potential impacts of separating from Canada,” Mintz said in the press release. “The advisory council will provide feedback to ensure that the in-depth assessment of economic considerations associated with separation enables Albertans to make an informed decision.”
The $1.5 million cost of the study and advisory panel reflects the significance of the work and the expertise of its members, Juliana Rodriguez, press secretary to the finance minister, said in a media statement.
Rodriguez said the expenditure was warranted because previous assessments of the costs of separation have reached different conclusions, and their authors have noted limitations in their methodologies.
“That is why Alberta’s government chose renowned and respected economists, public policy experts and business leaders to give Albertans an independent, objective and evidence-based analysis they can trust,” she said in the statement.
The province said the final report is expected to be released in late summer, giving Albertans time to review its findings before voting on Oct. 19.
Cost of Separation
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Nixon have alluded to the report in recent weeks, and Smith has said she believes some supporters of separation may not fully understand its potential impacts.
Smith told reporters at the June 1 press conference that the cost of separation for an independent Alberta would likely come in at roughly $400 billion in transitional costs. This would include Alberta’s portion of the national debt, NATO obligations, the establishment of armed forces, and other initial expenses along with an annual expenditure of as much as $50 billion, she has said.
“All of our trade agreements would have to be renegotiated,” she said at the press conference. “You don’t get grandfathered in on those, and so that’ll have a disruption in the economy. Presumably, we’d have tariffs on all goods that are being traded immediately.”
Separatist leaders have challenged Smith’s figures, arguing that the creation of a new country would involve startup costs capped at $5.7 billion, and that an autonomous Alberta would achieve surpluses once tax revenues are no longer sent to Ottawa.
Opposition leader Naheed Nenshi has criticized Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) government for proceeding with an October separation referendum. He characterized it as an irresponsible expenditure, saying it diverts crucial funds away from health care, education, and affordability initiatives.
“Elections Alberta says the October referendum will require hiring at least 60,000 workers and printing 45 million ballots,” the NDP leader said in a June 8 X post. “That will cost Albertans nearly five times what the last provincial election cost — up to $100 million — all so Danielle Smith can keep her deal with the separatists.”
Nenshi did not explain why 45 million ballots would be required. Elections Alberta 2025 data indicates there are roughly 2.9 million eligible voters in the province. A total of 1,777,315 electors voted in the 2023 provincial election, resulting in a voter turnout of 60.5 percent.
Smith added the separation question to the ballot after the Court of King’s Bench dismissed a proposed referendum petition regarding Alberta’s separation.
The backers of that proposed referendum—separatist group Stay Free Alberta—said they had collected 300,000 signatures, well above the minimum needed for it to be considered a future referendum question. The process for Elections Alberta to validate the signatures was halted after the court’s ruling.
Meanwhile, the “Forever Canadian” initiative, led by former Alberta Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk, has collected and validated more than 400,000 signatures from those that want Alberta to remain a part of Canada.
Smith has said she and her caucus are firmly on the side of remaining in Canada, adding that she plans to hold a number of town hall meetings this summer to convince Albertans that confederation is the right choice.