Canada has fallen further behind the United States economically, with seven provinces ranking among the 10 lowest for GDP per person in 2024 among 50 U.S. states and 10 Canadian provinces, according to a Fraser Institute study.
The study compared GDP per person in 2024 with 1999 levels. Newfoundland and Labrador recorded the largest increase among Canadian provinces, at $17,957, but ranked only 30th among all jurisdictions.
Alberta remained Canada’s highest-ranking province for GDP per person, at $74,907, but fell 18 places to 25th overall. Its increase of just $6,741 between 1999 and 2024 was the second-lowest among all 60 jurisdictions.
By comparison, North Dakota recorded the largest increase of any jurisdiction, at $51,533, climbing from 47th in 1999 to sixth in 2024. New York had the highest GDP per person in 2024, at $111,528.
Every U.S. state in the Great Lakes region also surpassed Ontario in both GDP per person growth and overall GDP per person in 2024.
The income gap was similarly pronounced. All 50 U.S. states had higher median employment incomes than Canada’s 10 provinces in 2024. Maryland ranked highest overall, while Prince Edward Island ranked lowest.
The study also examined private-sector employment, finding that its share of total employment declined in every Canadian province between 1999 and 2024. By contrast, the share increased in 31 U.S. states.
By 2024, seven Canadian provinces ranked among the bottom 10 jurisdictions for private-sector employment share. Prince Edward Island recorded the largest decline, at minus 4.59 percentage points.
Alberta had the highest private-sector employment share among Canadian provinces, at 82 percent, but ranked 44th overall. Michigan led all jurisdictions at 90.3 percent, while South Dakota recorded the largest improvement, rising 4.33 percentage points to 88.9 percent and climbing from 35th to fourth overall.
All eight U.S. states in the Great Lakes region also surpassed Ontario and Quebec in private-sector employment share.
Labour productivity was another area in which U.S. states substantially outperformed Canadian provinces. From 2007 to 2024, all 10 provinces ranked among the bottom 15 of the 60 jurisdictions, with 45 U.S. states recording stronger productivity growth than every Canadian province.
The study uses 2007 as its starting point because comparable labour productivity data for U.S. states are available only from that year.
Alberta again led Canadian provinces, with productivity growth of 15.6 percent, but ranked just 46th overall. Saskatchewan followed at 15.1 percent and Ontario at 14.6 percent. Quebec’s productivity grew by only 2.8 percent, while Prince Edward Island recorded a 20.4 percent decline, the only drop in any jurisdiction.
Washington state led all jurisdictions with productivity growth of 65.8 percent, followed by North Dakota at 60.6 percent and California at 50.8 percent. U.S. energy-producing states also generally outperformed Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador, highlighting Canada’s broader productivity challenges.
The study attributes Canada’s weaker economic performance to declining private-sector employment, slower productivity growth, and lower business investment. The think tank said that significant fiscal and economic reforms are needed to improve Canada’s prospects.
“Though it is still early in the 21st century, it appears the Canadian policymakers from coast to coast have thus far squandered their opportunity to step out from America’s shadow,” the report says.
“Serious and fundamental fiscal and economic reforms need to occur in the years to come if the hope is to still make this the Canadian Century.”