A cable factory in Baoying, Jiangsu Province, on July 23, 2006. Aly Song/Reuters
Canada’s goal of reducing carbon emissions cannot be achieved without relying on China, a new energy industry report says.
The key to success is copper, an essential component of electrification, according to the authors of “Securing Copper Supply: no China, no energy transition,” published by data and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie.
China dominates in the smelting and refining of copper, which is essential to creating tools needed for cleaner energy and reduced carbon emissions, the report says.
The authors estimate that copper demand will grow 75 percent by 2050.
“Hundreds of billions of dollars in new copper processing and fabrication capacity would be required to replace China,” the report says. “This would create inefficiencies that would result in significantly higher-priced finished goods and increase the cost and timeliness of the energy transition.”
Nearly 80 percent of copper mining produces copper concentrate, which needs to be processed, the report authors say. Once processed, it becomes cathode, which is used to make wire rods, tubes, plates, sheets and strips, and foil, which are the basis for components of finished goods, according to the report.
“In smelting and refining, China has added 97 percent of global capacity,” it says. “Since 2000, China has accounted for 75 percent of all global smelter capacity growth.”
Anticipated growth in transport, power, and electrical networks over the next 10 years will consume 70 percent of smelter capacity and 55 percent of fabricator capacity outside of China, the report says. If countries want to reduce their dependence on China for these services, about US$85 billion in new smelting and refining capability will be needed, it adds.
The federal government wants to get carbon emissions to 20 percent below 2005 levels by 2026. It has set a goal of net zero emissions by 2050.
Part of the policies to meet these goals include mandating the sale of electric vehicles and phasing out gas-powered vehicles and other uses of oil and gas. As well, other jurisdictions such as Quebec municipalities are banning natural gas appliances, adding further to electricity demand.