CCP Congress Outcome May Lead China on Warpath Against Taiwan: Analysts

By Venus Upadhayaya

Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s expected securing of an unprecedented third term in power during this week’s Chinese Communist Party congress increases the likelihood of war over Taiwan and will accelerate the regime’s actions against the United States, according to analysts and a former U.S. official.

The Party’s 20th National Congress—a twice-in-a-decade event—is due to kick off on Oct. 16, and will result in a reshuffle of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) top leadership. Key priorities for the next five years will also be set.

All eyes will be focused on the composition of the Politburo and its Standing Committee—the Party’s highest decision-making body—and whether it will be filled by Xi loyalists or those from other political factions.

“Someone will be appointed to take over as premier when Li Keqiang steps down next spring. The Party’s top leadership councils—especially the Politburo and the Central Committee—will see significant turnover,” Michael Cunningham, a visiting fellow at the Asia Study Center of The Heritage Foundation, told The Epoch Times in an email.

“All of the newly-appointed leaders will have important responsibilities, and who gets in these positions will help determine how powerful Xi is.”

If Xi, 69, manages to fill these bodies with his loyal proteges, he will be in a strong position to push forward his agenda, according to Cunningham.

The appointments will determine the intensity with which policies are implemented domestically and abroad, said Rahul Karan Reddy, a researcher with the New Delhi-based Organization for Research on China and Asia.

“The leaders chosen at the congress will shape policy implementation on things like pandemic prevention, supply chains, financial and monetary policy, wolf warrior diplomacy and so on,” Reddy said, adding that the past two years have been a testament to how policies in China have massive implications for countries around the world.

Cunningham noted that the CCP’s constitution—as opposed to China’s constitution—will be amended at the congress, adding that he expects to “amendments that will further cement Xi’s authority over the Party.”

Taiwan

Xi’s expected consolidation of power at the congress will have a far-reaching impact on Taiwan, according to some observers.

“General Secretary Xi wants to be remembered as China’s greatest leader since Mao, perhaps even greater than Mao. That path leads to Taiwan,” former Under Secretary of State Keith Krach, known for his efforts blocking the CCP’s attempts to dominate global 5G communications, told The Epoch Times in an email.

According to one analyst, the Chinese regime is now in a position to make a move against Taiwan, the self-ruled democratic island that Beijing has vowed to take by force, if necessary.

“This is the first CCP Congress in living memory that will solidify the position of a Chinese leader since Mao who can take China to war—and who probably will do so if current trends remain as they are,” Grant Newsham, a former U.S. diplomat and a senior research fellow at the Center for Security Policy and The Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, told The Epoch Times in an email.

“PLA capabilities have developed to the point the CCP leaders (and Xi in particular) believe [China] can conduct a short, sharp war (or even a long, sharp war) near its borders and succeed,” he added, referring to the CCP’s military wing, the People’s Liberation Army. Newsham is also a contributor to The Epoch Times.

During Xi’s ten years as paramount leader, he has emphasized China’s “national rejuvenation,” which analysts say indicate the regime’s intention of supplanting the United States as sole superpower by mid-century. Seizing Taiwan, experts say, is a key component of such plans.

Xi, Newsham said, appears to see himself as the one destined to restore China to its former glory, and he’s even ready to go to war for it.

“Taiwan is his most likely target, but a war will not be a tidy four-day affair and the effects will be felt worldwide. This Congress is putting China on the path to war,” said Newsham.

But other analysts believe things won’t be so easy for Xi.

Claude Arpi, a French-born historian and author of multiple books on Tibet and China, says that the CCP does not currently have the ability to successfully invade Taiwan.

“It is his [Xi’s] dream but all dreams don’t come true. If the economy goes bad Heaven may withdraw its mandate at one point in time. Today the PLA has not the capacity to ‘take’ Taiwan,” said India-based Arpi.

In addition, Xi’s woeful performance at home, with his insistence on zero-COVID policies leading to on-again off-again lockdowns across China and the country’s crumbling economy has limited the leader’s freedom of movement, according to Krach.

“Xi’s alliance with his Totalitarian Twin Vladimir Putin has also damaged the CCP’s ability to project influence worldwide and has likely forced Xi to recalibrate his plans for Taiwan,” Krach said.

“Though Xi is likely to gain another term, he’ll emerge on shaky ground,” he said.

While some analysts believe that a third term of Xi in power would lead to the CCP de-escalating its hostilities against Taiwan and the West, Newsham isn’t buying it.

To him, Xi’s policy decisions at home indicate that he’s preparing the country for a war, sooner or later.

“More likely, he sees his opportunity to push and he will take it. He’s been going about ‘sanctions proofing’ China’s economy and financial system and also exerting total control over the population via the ‘zero Covid’ crackdowns. Or in effect, conditioning the public to hardships. China has been stockpiling food and fuel—and building coal-fired power plants at breathtaking speed,” he said.

While the PLA build-up continues unabated, CCP officials have also been ordered to sell their own and their relatives’ overseas holdings and bring the cash back to China, Newsham said, referring to a Wall Street Journal report.

Impact on US-China Relations

The results of the congress are unlikely to lead to any easing of the confrontation between the Chinese regime and the United States, analysts said, pointing to Xi’s ambition of leading China to global supremacy by 2049.

“The U.S. is intent on retaining its position at the top of the world order, and the free world is counting on it to do so. China will continue to be confrontational towards the US, but Beijing knows it is currently weaker than the US, and the last thing it wants is a major war it is not sure it can win,” said Cunningham of The Heritage Foundation.

“Nevertheless, the mutual sense of hostility will continue to heighten the risk of escalation or miscalculation on either side.”

Krach said that ancient Chinese military strategy has dictated that the regime hide its strength and bide its time—which is exactly what CCP leaders since Mao have been doing.

“But in Xi, the CCP has had a coming-out party. Communist China is playing a four-dimensional game of military, cultural, political, and economic chess against not only the United States, but all freedom-loving nations, and the main battleground is technology,” said Krach.

If Xi during his unprecedented third term takes China on a warpath against Taiwan or others such as India, the U.S.-China relationship will revert back to what it was in 1970 during the Cold War, when Washington and Beijing saw each other as enemies and had no formal bilateral relations, according to Newsham.

Further, if any American lives are lost in a Taiwan invasion scenario, expect the relationship to collapse entirely.

“Normal relations just are not possible once this happens,” Newsham said.

Newsham believes that due to Xi’s expansionist agendas, in recent years the United States—and even the Europeans and the Japanese—have woken up to the CCP threat, and have started taking measures to defend themselves.

“Unless the Americans and the free nations simply roll over and let China have its way, one expects the world to break up into two main blocs—the free world and the unfree world,” he said.

“It will look like the old Cold War era—but with actual fighting for some length of time. Global institutions will either collapse or be irrelevant—though that isn’t necessarily a bad thing,” Newsham predicted.