A TC Energy pump station sits behind mounds of dirt from the Keystone XL crude oil pipeline as it lies idle near Oyen, Alberta, Canada February 1, 2021. REUTERS/Todd Korol
Commentary
Prime Minister Mark Carney has offered mixed messaging in responding to the war in Iran. He initially said Canada fully supports the United States and Israel in their efforts. He later tempered that by saying he wants to see a de-escalation of hostilities and that he supports the strikes “with regret.” Now, he is saying he wants to see a diplomatic solution to the war.
Carney’s fluid stance on the war has led to confusion among Canadians and division within his own caucus. Carney wants Canada to be an influential world player, and he has spent 20 percent of his first year as prime minister outside of the country trying to establish that. He has announced plans for a massive reinvestment in Canada’s military and is establishing ties in countries such as Australia, which hasn’t seen a visit from a Canadian prime minister in over a decade.
It’s great that Carney wants to invigorate Canada’s reputation on the world stage, but that task will take years. In the immediate term, he should be looking at establishing Canada as an economic force rather than a diplomatic or military one.
Canada’s current military force is low on hardware, numbers, and morale. Any contributions Canada may add to international alliances right now will be token at best. Even with new investment into the Armed Forces, Canada will never be a significant military power in the world due to its low population and massive geography to spread forces throughout. The nation should aspire to build a specialized force that can contribute to alliances and be respected, but it’s unrealistic to expect to be considered a large player on that front.
Diplomatically, Canada can play a significant role in global affairs. Prime Minister Lester B. Pearson played a key role on the global stage as the world rebuilt after World War II. It takes years to develop the relationships and build the respect before coming to the table with the world superpowers, however.
Canada’s strength is its natural resources—if only the federal government would uncuff the ability to extract and export them. The world is tired of energy price shocks and being beholden to bad actors. The Iranian revolution of 1979 sent energy prices spiralling, just as the war there today is doing the same thing. The war between Russia and Ukraine has exposed vulnerabilities in the European natural gas supply, but European nations can’t wean themselves from it because there are few other cost-effective alternatives available to them. Canada can reduce the world’s dependence on oil and gas supplied by dictatorships.
Canada has the third-largest oil reserves on the planet and is in the top 10 countries with natural gas supplies. The problem is that Canada just can’t get out of its own way and let those resources get to market.
One trait Mark Carney shares with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is an ideological attachment to the concept of a world with net-zero emissions, and it has given him an aversion to conventional energy sources such as oil and gas. It’s time to set aside ideology and embrace reality. Peak oil and gas predictions have come and gone for decades. While alternative energy sources are improving, the world is still at least a generation away from shedding the use of oil and gas. Nobody is being served inside or outside of Canada by shutting in resources.
Carney has offered mixed messaging when it comes to supporting the expansion of energy production in Canada. His MOU with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to expand pipeline capacity appears stagnant, and energy companies are holding back on investment. Just last week in Alberta, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. put the brakes on a planned $8.2 billion oilsands expansion due to regulatory uncertainty. It speaks volumes about how terrible a place Canada is to invest in oil and gas when projects are shut down while the world enters a potential energy crisis.
If Carney wants world leaders to sit up and pay attention, the fastest way to do so would be to turn Canada into the energy superpower it could be. Carney has the authority with a stroke of a pen to cut regulations and fast-track approvals for pipelines to all coasts. In providing ethically sourced energy to the world, he would undercut the strength of regimes such as Iran’s without dropping a single bomb, and he would guarantee himself a seat at the table with the top world leaders.
The war in Iran has taken away the option of trying to play all sides. Now is the time for decisive leadership.