Flag of Alberta (Image by pixabay)
At least six in 10 Albertans would choose to stay in Canada if they were to cast their votes on the province’s proposed separation referendum question today, a new poll suggests.
The Angus Reid poll released this week found that 60 percent of those surveyed said they would vote no to the official referendum question, while 35 percent said they would vote yes. Five percent were unsure.
But the poll also found that many voters said they are confused by the phrasing of the question the government of Alberta plans to include in the upcoming provincial referendum.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced plans last week to place a question on the October referendum ballot that will ask Albertans whether they wish to keep the province within Canada or prefer to hold a future binding referendum on the issue of separation.
When poll respondents were presented with a more straightforward hypothetical—to leave or to stay—the federalist stance became stronger, with 67 percent preferring to stay, 30 percent deciding to leave, and 3 percent being uncertain.
The variation in the voting results could be attributed to a lack of comprehension regarding the referendum question Smith has planned, the pollster said in a report on the survey results.
The question will read, “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
Half of Albertans surveyed—51 percent—described the question as “confusing,” while 56 percent said the premier has handled the issue poorly. Only those in favour of cessation said Smith has managed it effectively.
Smith has said the 37-word question was designed to “appease both sides of the debate.” Smith has said her United Conservative Party (UCP) caucus is firmly on the side of remaining in Canada.
The Angus Reid poll also determined that most of the people surveyed are firmly set in their viewpoints on separation.
“Both sides report strong commitment to their positions, with 75–78 percent saying they are absolutely or mostly committed to their referendum vote,” the pollster said.
Survey respondents also had strong opinions on the outcome of the fall referendum vote. While Smith has said she would honour the results of the referendum and hopes separatist advocates “would honour the outcome as well,” most Albertans surveyed are skeptical of this outcome.
Sixty-nine percent said they believe if Albertans vote against holding a separation referendum, that those who are in favour won’t accept the result. Eighty-three percent of those who would cast their vote to stay are even more convinced of this. Among those who would opt to leave, 41 percent agreed that separatists would not accept a loss, whereas 45 percent expressed their belief that the outcome would be accepted.
Demographic Breakdown
Edmonton has been identified as the city with the highest federalist sentiment, with 73 percent of its residents voting against separation and 22 percent voting in favour. In contrast, Calgary saw 58 percent of its population supporting the notion of remaining united, while 35 percent were ready to leave. Rural Alberta was evenly split at 48 percent on each side. There were also a handful of uncertain voters in each area.
Political leanings also significantly influenced the stance voters take on the issue. NDP voters were nearly unanimous in choosing to stay at 90 percent, while 64 percent of UCP voters were leaning toward separation.
Female voters were more likely than male voters to want to remain in Canada, as were younger voters.
Sixty-four percent of women polled said they would vote against separation compared to 56 percent of men.
Voters between the ages of 18 and 34 as well as 35 to 54 were far more likely to want to remain Canadian compared to their older counterparts. Sixty-four percent of the under-35s said they would vote to stay, just one percentage point lower than the 65 percent of the middle-aged demographic who expressed the same preference. Just 51 percent of the 55 and older group said they would vote against separation.
The online survey was conducted from May 22–24 among a randomized sample of 800 Albertans, Angus Reid said. The sample was weighted to reflect the demographics of adults across the province, considering factors such as region, gender, age, household income, and education.
Smith’s Response
Smith has said she plans to hold a number of town hall meetings this summer to convince Albertans that confederation is the right choice for the province.
“I have been clear with Albertans from the start that I support remaining in Canada and that has and will continue to be the position of my government and my caucus,” she said during a May 22 press conference. “I believe Albertans should remain in Canada, and I would ask that all Albertans join me in voting to remain a province of Canada.”
Smith has been criticized by some for allowing a referendum on the topic, while she has argued that ignoring those who want the vote is not realistic. She told reporters the province cannot afford to “kick the can down the road” for years by allowing the matter to remain unsettled.
Smith added the question to the referendum ballot last week on holding a separation vote. She said Albertans wanting a binding separation referendum in October need to accept that such an option isn’t possible due to a recent court decision.
The Court of King’s Bench of Alberta dismissed a proposed referendum petition regarding Alberta’s separation on May 13. The backers of that proposed referendum said they had collected well above the minimum number of signatures needed for it to be considered as a future referendum question. The court cited the lack of proper consultation with First Nations in its decision.
The separatist organization Stay Free Alberta has said it gathered more than 300,000 signatures for its petition. The process employed by Elections Alberta to validate the signatures was suspended after the court’s ruling. Meanwhile, the “Forever Canadian” initiative, spearheaded by former Alberta Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk, has gathered and verified more than 400,000 signatures from people who want Alberta to remain part of Canada.
The Oct. 19 referendum ballot will also include questions related to immigration reform and constitutional issues.