Conservatives Gain Ground for First Time Since Election as Cost-of-Living Worries Rise: Poll

The federal Conservatives have taken a lead over the Liberals for the first time since Mark Carney became prime minister in March, amid escalating worries about affordability and the economy, a new survey suggests.

There has been a “modest but significant shift” in national voting intentions with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives garnering 41 percent support, surpassing the Liberals’ 39 percent vote share, figures released over the weekend by Abacus Data indicate. The Liberals’ vote share has fallen by four percentage points since the beginning of August.

Sixty-nine percent of respondents agreed with a statement that said it’s “time for a change” in Ottawa. While 36 percent of this group said there is a “good alternative” to the Liberals, 30 percent said there isn’t a good option. Thirty-four percent said the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, while just 35 percent of Canadians said they believe the country is headed in the right direction.

Most surveys were submitted ahead of the Air Canada flight attendants’ strike and the Carney government’s efforts to mandate their return to work, as well as before Poilievre’s Aug. 18 byelection win in Alberta, Abacus Data CEO David Coletto noted in an Aug. 24 blog post. The majority of the polling was also completed before Carney’s recent decision to retract counter-tariffs on certain U.S. products.

“After a spring and summer of remarkable stability, our latest Abacus Data survey suggests the winds of public opinion may be starting to shift,” Coletto said in the Aug. 24 post. “While this wave captures the landscape just as Air Canada flight attendants began strike action, and therefore doesn’t fully reflect the fallout from that dispute, it does point to some notable movement in how Canadians are thinking about politics.”

Among those who are most likely to vote, the race is evenly matched at 41 percent for both the Liberals and Conservatives, serving as a reminder that voter turnout and motivation are as crucial as the actual levels of support, Coletto noted.

Voter intention for the Conservatives and the Liberals is statistically even in B.C. and Atlantic Canada, but the Grits hold a slight lead over the Tories in Ontario and the Bloc in Quebec. The Conservatives remain dominant in Alberta and continue to have robust support in the other prairie provinces.

While political opinion has shifted slightly for the two most popular parties, voter intention held steady for the NDP at 7 percent, the survey found. The Bloc also sat at 7 percent support while the Greens and the People’s Party of Canada garnered 2 percent each.

Approval Ratings

The Carney-led federal government still enjoys a relatively strong approval rating of 49 percent, but this survey marks the first time that figure has fallen below 50 percent since Carney assumed leadership. The government’s disapproval ratings have risen to 30 percent from a previous low of 23 percent in early June.

“It’s not collapse, but it is a sign that the goodwill that carried the Liberals through the spring may be starting to erode under the weight of affordability pressures and frustration around housing,” Coletto said.

Carney is still regarded positively, with 48 percent of respondents holding a favourable impression of him against 30 percent who view him unfavourably, for a net favourability score of +18, the survey found. The score is determined by subtracting the percentage of unfavourable opinions from the percentage of favourable opinions. Poilievre is less popular with a net favourability of -2, but his numbers are more stable, Coletto noted.

“For those who believe Pierre Poilievre can’t become Prime Minister: the data doesn’t support that view,” he said in his report. “His favourability numbers are not better than Carney’s but not bad either, and the Conservative coalition remains firm. With Poilievre back in the House of Commons this fall and with a complex set of issues in front of the government, we may start to see more shifts in public opinion.”

Top Issues

The increasing cost of living continues to be the primary concern for 60 percent of those surveyed, overshadowing U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration, which was identified as the second most significant political issue by 38 percent of poll participants. That number is down six points from 44 percent earlier in the summer.

“While still significant, his shadow is receding slightly, likely reflecting both Canadian fatigue and a slight cooling in U.S. news coverage,” Coletto said of Trump.

The economy placed third on the list of issues at 36 percent, followed by the housing crisis at 35 percent, health care at 33 percent, and immigration at 25 percent. The environment and job security were listed by 16 percent as a top issue, closely followed by crime and public safety at 15 percent.

Views on global outlook and the United States remain negative among those surveyed, with only 14 percent and 13 percent respectively saying they are headed in the right direction, driven by persistent global uncertainty and a continued skepticism toward U.S. leadership.

“This drop suggests fatigue with the constant stream of U.S. political news or perhaps a recalibration as Canadians grapple with their own domestic challenges,” Coletto said. “For the governing Liberals, that shift isn’t good news: they hold advantages on international files, but continue to trail the Conservatives on affordability, the economy, and immigration.”