Signs outside an advance polling station in Burnaby, B.C., on Sept. 10, 2021. (Jennifer Gauthier/Reuters)
The average lifespan of a federal minority government in Canada is a little over 18 months. A minority may hang on for an extended period if no party takes a significant lead in the polls. That’s why the last Trudeau government lasted over three years. It was never in the interest of any party to try to take the government down until the final few months of Trudeau’s leadership.
Now, one party is solidly breaking away from the pack, and it isn’t an opposition party. It’s the Carney Liberals, and they will be sorely tempted to take Canadians to the polls this spring for several reasons.
The Liberals have maintained a lead since winning a minority government last April, and now several pollsters are reporting the lead is widening. The Liberals only defeated the Conservatives by a 2.5 percent margin in 2025, but it translated to winning 25 more seats than the Conservatives due to vote efficiency favouring the Liberals. If the Liberals maintained the 13-point lead they enjoy today through a general election, they would win a comfortable majority government.
While Prime Minister Carney may garner a majority government through floor crossings, it would be a weak majority, and he would be susceptible to pressure from his own caucus members on issues. With a buffer of 10 or 20 seats in a majority government, a prime minister can pursue an aggressive mandate. Carney would surely prefer to have a comfortable four-year span in power rather than having to twist and turn politically to manage a minority or slim majority government.
What Carney has in his favour is that large groups of voters see him as the best person to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump. The U.S. president’s aggressive tariffs and jibes about turning Canada into the 51st state led to many rallying around the “elbows up” campaign and giving the Liberals an astounding electoral comeback in 2025.
With term limits preventing Donald Trump from seeking another term and with midterm elections this fall, with tariffs and the economy looming large, he is fighting back against tariff setbacks, such as a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, and trying to find new avenues to impose additional tariffs on trading partners. That battle in the coming months will keep relations between Canada and the United States inflamed and provide an ideal political atmosphere for the Liberals to go to an election.
The federal NDP is finishing what has been a lacklustre leadership race. The party is broke, dejected, and languishing in the electoral basement in popular support. That said, a new leader could invigorate the party. While the NDP won’t be in a position to win an election, it could eat away at some of the lead the Liberals are enjoying. A snap election would prevent the NDP from getting its footing under new leadership.
A potential downside in calling a snap election this spring is the unity crisis budding in Alberta. Albertans appear all but sure to be holding an independence referendum this fall, and it can be assured that a federal Liberal majority win would feed the independence movement. The federal government can’t set its election timing at Alberta’s convenience, but a snap election, which could serve the Liberals well, may come with unintended consequences for the rest of the country. Carney would be well-served to do something tangible to calm Western alienation, but so far he has offered little aside from MOUs and promises of future goodwill.
Rest assured, the Liberal Party is furiously conducting internal polls right now and seriously considering the merits of calling a snap election. They could craft an ambitious platform, then tell Canadians it’s just too important to implement without seeking a mandate from the voters in an election.
Elections can swing unpredictably, and the Carney government won’t call one unless it is certain of a win. That win is looking quite possible right now, though, and if spending increases are any indication of things, the Liberals are getting ready to hit the campaign trail.